What if you could trade the Super Bowl the same way you trade a stock?

That’s not a metaphor, it’s already happening.

Prediction markets are quietly blurring the line between sports betting, financial trading, and real-time forecasting. Instead of placing a bet against a sportsbook at fixed odds, users buy and sell contracts on an exchange. Each contract answers a simple question: Will this happen, yes or no? If it does, the contract pays out $1. If it doesn’t, it’s worth nothing.

The twist? These contracts trade between $0 and $1, and the price is the probability. A contract trading at $0.65 means the market believes there’s a 65% chance of that outcome. As news breaks, sentiment shifts, or money flows in, prices move just like stocks. You’re not “betting” so much as trading belief.

Even more disruptive is the business model behind it. Prediction markets don’t act like casinos. They don’t set odds. They don’t take the other side of your wager. Instead, they function like exchanges matching buyers and sellers and taking a small transaction fee. No house risk. No built-in vig. As Kalshi’s founder famously put it: if this is gambling, then so is the entire financial market.

This seemingly subtle shift from betting to trading has massive implications. It changes who can participate, how platforms make money, which regulators get involved, and why Wall Street firms, Big Tech platforms, sports leagues, and politicians are suddenly paying attention.

And 90% of all trades are made on Sports!

How Sports Prediction Markets Work

Sports prediction markets operate by matching buyers and sellers who have opposing views on a game or event. For example, one trader’s “Yes” (that Team A will win) is matched with another’s “No” (that Team A will lose). The market price continuously updates based on supply and demand if new information or betting sentiment favors Team A, the price of “Yes” contracts for Team A will rise (and “No” will fall), reflecting the crowd’s updated probability. Crucially, traders can enter and exit positions before the event resolves. If you bought a contract at 50 cents and it rises to 80 cents, you can sell and lock in profit without waiting for the final score. This pre-game and even in-game trading creates liquidity and price discovery: the contract odds incorporate real-time information (injuries, weather, etc.) and the collective wisdom (or biases) of fans and bettors.

Because users can trade contracts multiple times, volume can far exceed the actual money at stake. A contract might change hands dozens of times before a game ends, generating fee revenue on each transaction. High-volume trading leads to dynamic odds and oft-volatile price swings as markets react to rumors or sudden plays on the field. In practice, modern event exchanges have market makers to ensure there’s always liquidity on both sides. For instance, Susquehanna International Group (SIG), a major Wall Street trading firm, became the first institutional market maker on Kalshi in 2024, committing to keep deep order books so traders can buy or sell up to 100,000 contracts ($100k notional) easily. This injection of liquidity has made prediction markets much more liquid and efficient, bringing them closer to the experience of trading stocks or commodities.

How Sports Prediction Markets Work

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